Recently, Bitcoin has repeatedly reached new highs. Many research institutions and KOLs have made their analyses on the subsequent trends. Reference: “2024 Will Be the Main Year of this Bull Market Cycle, the Safer Strategy Is to Increase Positioning“. Crypto KOL Riyue Xiaochu listed several key data points on X to help readers understand the market. The full text reprinted by BlockBeats is as follows:

Note: This article only represents the personal views of the original author and is for learning and communication purposes only, without investment advice.

[Key Data Analysis for Market Decisions]

Since BTC reached 38,000 USD, the total market value of stablecoins has increased by 11 billion USD. There was a significant increase in issuance last week, with stablecoins issuing 3.7 billion USD.
Starting from March 6th, the main force behind the rise in BTC has shifted to Asian funds. There are signs of withdrawal of funds from the United States, and BTC has instead fallen by 15% in the U.S. time zone, which is not a good sign.
ETFs have collectively flowed in 9.5 billion USD, so the inflow of stablecoin funds still exceeds that of ETFs, which is the biggest driving force for the rise in the currency circle. However, ETFs can only purchase BTC, so the funds of ETFs play a more dominant role in the rise of BTC.
Regarding BTC whales, in the past week, the number of addresses with more than 1,000 BTC has decreased by 50, while the number of addresses with more than 100 BTC has increased by 86.

1. Stablecoin Total Market Value Analysis

From the perspective of the total market value of stablecoins, here are some data:

1) At the lowest point of this market cycle, that is, on September 10, 2023, the total market value of stablecoins was US$121 billion.

2) At the lowest point after the adoption of ETF, BTC was adjusted to 38,500, that is, on January 23, 24, the total market value of stablecoins was US$128.3 billion.

3) Last Monday, the total market value of stablecoins was US$135.6 billion

4) This Monday, the total market value of stablecoins was US$139.3 billion.

In other words, the last round of market prices began to reach the lowest point after the adoption of ETF, and a total of US$7.3 billion in stablecoins was issued. In the past month or so, an additional US$11 billion has been issued in stablecoins. There was a significant growth rate last week, with an additional US$3.7 billion in stablecoins being issued.

For mainstream stablecoins USDT and USDC, since September 10, 23, USDT has increased from 82.9 billion to 102 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.1 billion US dollars. USDC has increased from 26.1 billion to 30.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.9 billion US dollars. USDT has been the main issuer of stablecoins.

2. Altcoin Total Market Value Analysis

In the above figure, a) black represents the total market value of cryptocurrency; b) green represents the total market value of cryptocurrency after excluding BTC and ETH; c) orange represents the total market value of USDT. we can observe:

1) Since the bottom on September 23, the growth of the total market value of BTC+ETH has obviously exceeded that of other altcoins, and has exceeded it most of the time. So, first of all, congratulations to those who hold large positions in BTC and ETH, and secondly,If your current income cannot beat BTC and ETH, don’t doubt yourself. Don’t look at the people all over the Internet who are promoting their earnings dozens of times, but the actual overall income of the altcoins lags behind that of BTC and ETH.

2) We observe the increase in the market value of USDT and it is obvious that the increase rate is lower than the increase rate of cryptocurrency. There are two reasons for this.

a) ETF funds and Coinbase-dominated USD funds are also doing so;

b) As the market rises, more people adopt a strategy of holding positions. Therefore, it does not require a large amount of funds to drive market trends.

3. ETF Data Analysis

From the data regarding ETFs, as of March 8th, ETFs held a net asset of $55 billion in BTC. The cumulative net inflow was $9.5 billion. In contrast, the issuance of stablecoins amounted to $11 billion. Therefore, the inflow of funds into stablecoins still exceeds that of ETFs, making it the largest driving force behind the rise in the cryptocurrency market. However, it’s important to note that ETF funds are only used to purchase BTC, whereas stablecoin funds also include other altcoins. Therefore, when it comes to the rise of BTC, ETF funds play a more dominant role.

From the relationship between the prices and the net inflow of ETFs mentioned above, it’s evident that ETFs are highly correlated with the price of BTC. Around January 20th, when there was a net outflow, BTC was in a state of decline and bottoming out. Conversely, when there was a net inflow, BTC was in an upward trend. This indicates that ETF funds in the United States largely influence the price of BTC.

4. Trends in US and Asian Funds

Over the past month, looking at the contributions to the rise in BTC from various time zones, initially, the trend in the US time zone consistently held the leading position, indicating that the US was the primary driving force behind the increase in BTC prices, while the contribution from Asian funds was relatively small. However, starting from March 6th, there were signs of withdrawal of funds from the US, leading to a 15% decline in BTC prices during the US time zone. The main force behind the rise in BTC prices has shifted to Asian funds.

Moreover, looking at the cumulative contributions over the past month, Asian funds have contributed significantly more to the rise in BTC prices compared to the US. Historically, the continuity of Asian funds is not long-lasting, so this may not be a very positive signal.

5. BTC Whale Data Analysis

Over the past month, the inventory of BTC on exchanges has been continuously declining, decreasing from 2.363 million to 2.28 million, resulting in a net outflow of 83,000 BTC. At the same time, the number of whales holding over 10,000 BTC decreased by 1, the number of whales holding over 1,000 BTC decreased by 9, and the number of whales holding 100 BTC increased by 190. Therefore, the net outflow of BTC from exchanges is mainly associated with whales holding around 100 BTC.

Looking at the data from the past week, the inventory of BTC on exchanges continues to decline, while the number of whales holding over 10,000 BTC remains unchanged. However, there has been a significant decrease in the number of whales holding over 1,000 BTC, with a decrease of around 50, while the number of holders with 100 BTC has increased by around 80.

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