Fundamental & Technical Outlook
Last week the U.S. Federal Reserve raised
the U.S. federal funds rate by 75 basis points, marking a 15-year high. The decision to take the rate from 3% to 3.25% was expected, with the market pricing in a rise of 75 basis points ahead of time. However, markets sold off sharply on the news.
On Monday, yields for two-year U.S. Treasurys soared to 4.3%, reaching levels last seen in August of 2007. Ten-year notes topped 3.9%, their highest mark since 2010.
An inverted yield curve suggests that investors are placing a higher degree of risk on short-term than longer-term lending, and historically has foreshadowed recessions that affect all risk assets. Cryptocurrencies typically move in the opposite direction of yields.
Crypto markets have been tightly tracking equities as of late, as the correlation between the Nasdaq and bitcoin
has reached its highest point since May. The DJIA and SPX both falling over a percentage point and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropping 0.6%.
(BTC) is trading at $19,280 (+2.69%) and Ether (ETH) is changing hands at $1,338 (+3.5%) as of this writing. Among Layer-1s, Ripples XRP -4.82%, Solana (SOL) +5%, and Polkadot (DOT) +6%.
A lot has happened since The Merge and ETH’s proceeding 20% slump, Ethereum gas fee has reached a two-year low and China GPU prices drop to new lows. In the U.S., California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill that would create a license for companies operating in the crypto space.
On the legal front, Terraform Labs Founder Do Kwon says he's 'making zero effort to hide’ while not disclosing his location as the South Korean government says Interpol has issued a red notice for Do Kwon.
Looking ahead, the respective Fibonacci extension zones are:
1. Support zone $16,464 - $18,143
2. Resistance zone $19,417 - 21,825
Daily Timeframe 日线图
As of this writing on Sep. 27 01:20 UTC, BTC was trading at $19,576 (+3.27%) in a 24hr period.
BTC continues riding the short-term bullish wave during early Tuesday trading following Monday’s positive note. The bulls will likely be eyeing the 61.8% Fibonacci level which coincides with the monthly resistance level of $19,858. On the contrary, the bears will likely keep prices below the resistance level to see a retest of the 78.6% ($19,320) Fibonacci level.
Below the weekly trendline, a support zone can be derived by using the Fibonacci extension tool, which generates three Fibonacci extension levels (127.2%, 141.4%, & 161.8%) measured from the plunge between Aug. 15 - Aug. 22, which coincide with the opening and close of the weekly candle on Jul. 4.
As of this writing on Sep. 27 00:03 UTC, ETH was trading at $1,332 (+2.2%) in a 24hr period.
During Tuesday's early trading session, BTC appears to trade within a range.
This week’s target zones were measured using Fibonacci extension levels from various different cycles.
Level 0 zone: $1,279 - $1,334
Level 1 zone: $1,334 - $1,375
Level 2 zone: $1,375 - $1,392
Level 0 zone: $1,317 - $1,334
Level 1 zone: $1,334 - $1,279
Level 2 zone: $1,278 - $1,237
📌 The topic of the Day: **Apple Allows NFT Sales On Its App Store — At a 30% Premium
Tech giant Apple now allows NFTs to be bought and sold through applications listed on its App Store. However, Apple applies its existing Web2 monetization structure, taking a 30% cut from app developers who make over $1 million through the App Store on an annual basis, and 15% making less than that. Android’s app store Google Play applies the same policy.
Before this decision, apps storing or displaying NFTs may have been breaking Apple’s rules. Now, developers can sell NFTs with Apple’s blessing. It is also rumored that Apple is working on
augmented reality smart glasses that could be distributed by the end of this year — potential competition for Facebook in the metaverse.
It was only recently that Disney just made some noise in the web3 space. With Apple changing policy, what will this mean for the NFT and Metaverse markets in 2023?
🗒 Happenings of The Week (Sep. 24 - 27)
🔹 California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill
that would create a license for companies operating in the crypto space. Newsom wrote in a Sept. 23 letter to the California State Assembly, “A more flexible approach is needed to ensure regulatory oversight can keep up with rapidly evolving technology and use cases, and is tailored with the proper tools to address trends and mitigate consumer harm.”
🔹 Ethereum gas fee has reached a two-year low.
The number of users, transaction count on Ethereum, and transaction count on Layer 2s remain on a positive upward trajectory. Notably, interest in speculative NFT buying has dropped significantly.
🔹 Australia’s CBDC pilot is looking for industry participants
to make submissions on CBDC use cases. Dubbed the “eAUD,” the pilot is currently in the research stages and will be tested by participants in January next year. Last week, The People’s Bank of China announced it was extending the trial of e-CNY to several new provinces including Guangdong and Sichuan.
🔹 The European Central Bank is gauging whether a CBDC
has a part to play in improving its interbank transaction activities. But the ECB is unlikely to be the first-mover around a central bank digital currency, said a member of its board. The evaluation and results of the project are anticipated in March 2023.
🔹 Aragon community voting to transfer treasury funds after dissolving old DAO.
The DAO dissolution means the Aragon community needs to decide on what to do with the treasury funds. Data from DeepDAO shows that AN DAO holds $166 million in its treasury, half of which is in the form of the USDC stablecoin. The treasury also holds $46 million in ether and $25 million in wrapped bitcoin
🔹 Hacker steals $950,000 from crypto vanity address as exploits continue.
Hackers are continuing to steal cryptocurrency created by a tool called Profanity. The latest hack comes after Wintermute lost $160 million as a result of this issue.
🔹 Terraform Labs Founder Do Kwon says he's 'making zero effort to hide'
but declined to disclose his exact whereabouts. On Monday, South Korea says Interpol has issued a red notice for Do Kwon. Terraform Labs executives are wanted by the government for allegedly breaking capital market laws, following the $40 billion collapse of luna and terraUSD.
🔹 Disney is hiring transaction lawyer for 'aggressive' NFT and DeFi plans.
Disney CEO says the conglomerate is focused on “next generation storytelling.” Last year, it dropped the Walt & Mickey “Partners” NFT on the VeVe app for iOS and Android.
🔹 China GPU prices drop to new lows after the Ethereum Merge.
The Nvidia GeForce RTX 3080’s price dropped from $1118, or 8,000 yuan, to 5,000 yuan within three months, according to a Chinese merchant.
Author: Gate.io Researcher Peter L.
This article represents only the researcher's views and does not constitute any investment advice.
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