TL;DR

• BTC saw a five-day uptrend followed by a minor pullback. ETH mirrored BTC’s movement but surged significantly in a single day due to ETF launch expectations. Altcoins saw a general rally.
• The management fees for various issuers of Ethereum spot ETFs have been disclosed, indicating a high probability of official trading soon. Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for nine consecutive days.
• Ethereum mainnet gas fees spiked over 10 gwei early in the week due to memecoin trading but later dropped to single digits. On-chain activity remains relatively low.
• Several tokens are scheduled for substantial unlocks next week, with AltLayer set to unlock approximately $100 million worth of ALT, representing about 42.08% of its current circulation.
• This week, several infrastructure projects such as Partior and ZAP secured significant funding. For airdrop opportunities, keep an eye on the restaking project Karak. Next week’s calendar is packed with events, including Bitcoin 2024 as a highlight.

Market Analysis

Review and Insights

• Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a five-day rally, rising from a monthly low of around $56,000 to a peak of $66,000 before retracing to $64,000. It is now fluctuating between $63,000 and $66,000.
• Ethereum (ETH) mirrored BTC’s price movement, starting a four-day rise from a low of $3050 and reaching a weekly high of about $3510. Fueled by the positive ETF news, ETH surged by 7.39% on the 15th.
• Altcoins surged across the board as the market warmed up, with top 100 coins like WLD, ICP, AR seeing gains over 30%. Sectors such as BRC-20, Storage, Memecoins, and Layer 1 led the charge.
• The assassination attempt on crypto-friendly U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump boosted his election odds, driving up related Meme coins.
• Since July 5th, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen nine consecutive days of net inflows, while the market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 0.59% over the past week. Growing investor interest in ETFs has fueled stablecoins demand.
• Ethereum’s mainnet gas fees spiked above 10 gwei early in the week due to speculation on “Trump concept” meme tokens. Later, it dropped to single-digit levels, with on-chain activity remaining relatively low.

Weekly Focus

Donald Trump’s Assassination Attempt was Interpreted as Bullish for Crypto

On July 13th, during a campaign rally, the U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump was shot. PolyMarket showed that after the shooting, Trump’s odds of winning surged to 71%, reaching a historic high. [1] This incident had significant global economic implications, leading to noticeable upticks in both the gold and crypto markets. In the crypto space, “Trump concept” meme coins like MAGA, Trump, and Fight saw collective surges.

The assassination attempt on Trump was construed by the market as positive news for crypto. Previously, Trump had openly stated his acceptance of cryptocurrency donations for his presidential campaign and expressed explicit support for the crypto industry.[2][3] Additionally, J.D. Vance, who Trump proposed as his vice president, also holds a favorable stance towards crypto. Vance not only owns BTC but also plans to enhance FIT21 and adopt a more crypto-friendly approach.[4] In summary, the shooting incident garnered more votes for Trump, seen as a crypto-friendly candidate, driving speculation in related cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum Spot ETF Saw New Progress

On July 17th, multiple ETF issuers resubmitted their S-1 filings. Given the SEC’s minimal comments before this resubmission, the focus now is largely on fee disclosures. Therefore, it’s highly unlikely the SEC will provide extensive commentary on the version submitted this Wednesday. If this version becomes the final S-1 filing, based on the SEC’s typical procedures, the official trading date for the ETF will soon be determined.

The current S-1 filings reveal that each issuer has disclosed their respective ETF management fees. Most issuers priced their fees at 0.2% or higher, with Grayscale having the highest fee at 2.50% and Franklin the lowest at 0.19%. According to these filings, approximately $17 billion in ETF funds are positioned to benefit from low management fees. Issuers must sell larger-scale ETFs to generate more income, indirectly reflecting their expectations for ETF sizes, likely in the tens of billions of dollars.[5]

In the short term, anticipation of ETF launches has sparked speculation in ETH’s price. Long-term, ETH’s actual circulating supply is significantly lower than that of Bitcoin. Currently, over 27% of ETH is staked[6], and Ethereum is widely used as gas fees on the mainnet and various Layer 2 solutions. Additionally, large amounts of ETH are locked in DeFi projects such as lending and stablecoins, making a substantial portion of ETH illiquid. The long-term demand generated by ETF launches will further stimulate price increases.

German Sell-Off Completed, Eyes on Multiple Key Wallets

The “German Government”-labeled address nearly emptied its holdings on July 13, leaving only around 0.007 BTC. The address associated with Mt. Gox has also made several large BTC transfers. As of July 16, 5:00 PM, it still held roughly 138,990 BTC, valued at approximately $8.73 billion. On July 16, over 40,000 BTC were moved out of cold storage.[7] On July 18, Kraken, involved in the Mt. Gox creditor repayment process, announced that it had successfully received funds (BTC and BCH) from the Mt. Gox trustee for the creditors. Kraken also mentioned that it is currently emailing some creditors and plans to distribute the funds as soon as possible, with the funds expected to be deposited into users’ accounts within 7 to 14 days.[8] Due to potential fiat profits made by Mt. Gox creditors in this compensation round, sell-offs may occur after receiving the compensation, which could negatively impact BTC sentiment.

An address labeled Genesis Trading has also begun transferring assets to exchanges in batches, suggesting asset sales for creditor repayment. The figure below shows they’re selling not just BTC, but also stablecoins, ETH, and altcoins. As of 3 PM on July 16, the address still held 32,256 BTC, 113,604 ETH, 115,671 COMP, 2.595M USDC, and 9.544M GRT tokens. Given the limited liquidity of some of the altcoins held, there is a risk of significant price volatility due to sudden sell-offs.

Ton’s Meme DOGS Garners Over 5.72 Million Subscriptions

Over the past week, Ton’s Meme DOGS has taken the internet by storm. The image is inspired by Pavel Durov, the founder of TON, and his pet dog Spotty. As of 10 AM on July 19, the Meme’s Telegram channel has garnered 5.72 million subscriptions.

Key features of this Meme include:
1.The striking black-and-white dog design, inspired by Spotty, has been cartoonified;
2.Direct airdrops to Telegram users, with the amount depending on factors like account registration time and whether the user subscribes to the Premium feature;
3.Easy access to claim tokens by simply clicking a few buttons in the Dogs Bot and inviting friends to join;
4.Earning points through various activities, including but not limited to inviting friends and participating in the Telegram Star donation campaign (which ended on July 15).

The invitation-based marketing strategy, combined with the easy claiming process, has led to viral spread. Airdropping directly to Telegram users expands the potential holder base to 900 million, making it easier to break into the mainstream. Currently, DOGS tokens cannot be directly traded, but once on-chain claiming is enabled, they will undoubtedly attract new users to the Ton ecosystem. This will also create short-term demand for Ton tokens as gas fees, benefiting their price. In the long term, the success of DOGS highlights the tremendous potential of the Ton ecosystem, as well as its appeal for applications, memes, and infrastructure.

Weekly Spotlight

Solana Blink

On June 25, Solana launched “Solana Blink,” a product that uses the Action protocol to convert complex on-chain operations such as swapping, minting NFTs, and making payments into easily shareable URL links. These links can be seamlessly embedded in social media and websites, allowing users to complete on-chain activities without leaving the current page.

Just two days post-launch, the concept of “50+ ideas build on Blink”[9] gained significant traction, leading to the debut of the Solana Blink concept NFT project, SEND IT. As of July 17th, the NFT has over 11.54K holders and a total trading volume exceeding 19K SOL. Subsequently, the SEND team announced that they will provide incentives and support to the community through token distribution.[10]

Solana Blink has received official support from Solana[11] and has partnered with projects like Jupiter, Phantom, and Backpack. With its simple operations and embeddability, combined with Solana’s mobile and meme culture, Blink is poised to attract more Web2 users to Web3, driving new growth for the Solana ecosystem.

Trending Categories

According to Coingecko, the top three performing categories this week are DID, BRC-20, and Storage, with several tokens in these categories experiencing over 40% growth.

Decentralized Identifiers (DID) — The DID category has seen a 29% market cap increase this week. This blockchain-based digital identity system empowers individuals with full control over their personal information, significantly enhancing privacy, data security, and identity portability. By providing a secure and reliable user authentication method for DApps, DID is revolutionizing digital identity. The growth is largely attributed to the 40%+ surge in its leading token, WLD.

BRC-20 — BRC-20, a well-known inscription standard on Bitcoin, has experienced a 27.1% market cap growth in the past week. This surge can be attributed to the booming popularity of new inscription assets and the approximately 60% increase in its core component, SATS. Unisat, a prominent inscription marketplace, is currently developing a BRC-20 swap module, which will be deployed on Bitcoin’s mainnet and Unisat’s Layer 2 network, Fractal Bitcoin, in the future. SATS will be used as the gas fee token.

Storage — The storage category has seen a 26.4% market cap increase in the past 7 days. Decentralized storage, enabled by blockchain technology, achieves distributed encryption, sharding, and multi-node storage of data, enhancing security, privacy, and censorship resistance. The top two tokens in this category, ICP and AR, have both gained over 35%.

Top Performers

According to CoinGecko, the popular cryptocurrencies over the past 7 days are as follows:

WLD — Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman, has recently gained significant attention due to adjustments in the WLD token unlock schedule. On July 17, the price of WLD tokens surged by 85.06% in just two days, rising from $1.74 to $3.22.[12] This price spike was mainly due to the Worldcoin Foundation extending the unlock period for 80% of the WLD tokens held by investors and team members from three years to over five years,[13] reducing the immediate supply pressure on the market. Although this move boosted prices in the short term, it has raised concerns about potential price manipulation.

FIGHT — Fight to Maga (FIGHT) is a meme token on Ethereum. The token is inspired by the slogan shouted by U.S. presidential candidate Trump when he was shot. The token is now listed on Gate.io, and its price quickly rose from $0.025 to $0.084 after listing, an increase of over 330%. However, the token is highly volatile due to political events and market sentiment, with its price dropping by 34% in yesterday’s trading session.[14]

AERO — Aerodrome Finance (AERO) is an innovative DeFi platform on the Base chain. The token’s price has surged by 59.0% over the past 7 days.[15] AERO combines next-generation AMM technology, a decentralized liquidity hub, a liquidity incentive engine, a vote-lock governance model, and an optimized user experience to provide efficient trading and comprehensive financial services. Additionally, AERO token holders can participate in governance and token emission allocation through NFTs, enhancing community engagement and transparency.

Data Highlights

Macro Funds

As of July 17, the total trading volume of BTC ETFs reached $1.97 billion, with a total market capitalization of $59.855 billion. BTC ETFs have seen a net inflow of $1.1652 billion for seven consecutive days, indicating growing interest in cryptocurrency investments from external funds.

Alongside the increased net inflows into BTC ETFs, the stablecoin market capitalization has slightly risen by 0.58% to $163.288 billion, indicating accelerated inflows of off-exchange funds. This trend may be driven by heightened interest in alternative investment assets due to the Trump assassination attempt, anticipation of upcoming ETH ETF listings, and a growing appetite for risk assets. These factors collectively contribute to increased activity in the cryptocurrency market. Investors should monitor these dynamics closely to make informed decisions.

Ethereum Gas Fee

This week, Ethereum’s Gas Fee remained at single-digit levels, with a slight increase in on-chain activity. Among the top 5 Gas consumers, the Telegram trading bots Banana Gun and Maestro outperformed several DeFi protocols. One of Banana Gun’s main features is defending against large-scale/spam transaction attacks, allowing Sniper bot and Sell bot to function normally under congested blockchain conditions. The Maestro protocol offers multi-chain (BSC and ETH) sniper bots, wallet trackers, and whale bots.

Bitcoin Ahr999 Index

The Ahr999 index, also known as the “Hodling Indicator,” has stabilized between 0.8 and 0.9 over the past week. This indicates that the price of Bitcoin relative to its realized value is now within a normal valuation range. According to the Ahr999 index, this could be a good time for dollar-cost averaging.

The Ahr999 Index is a “Hodling Indicator” used to measure Bitcoin’s investment attractiveness, helping investors identify potential buying and accumulation opportunities while avoiding investments during market overheating.

1. Ahr999 < 0.45: The market may be in an oversold state, suitable for buying;
2. Ahr999 between 0.45-1.2: The market is in a normal valuation range, recommended for dollar-cost averaging;
3. Ahr999 > 1.2: The market may be overheated, and the indicator does not provide operational advice.

Market Opportunties

Project Airdrops

Airdrop project to watch this week: Karak

Introduction

Karak is an emerging decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol focused on providing multi-chain asset management and restaking services. Karak’s vision is to offer users higher capital efficiency and richer yield options through its innovative restaking mechanism. To date, Karak has attracted over $1 billion in deposits, demonstrating market recognition of its products.[16]

Participation Mechanism

Karak’s airdrop plan targets early participants and community contributors, aiming to reward those who supported the project in its early stages. Participants can receive Karak’s airdrop rewards in the following ways:

1. Staking Assets: Users can stake various supported crypto assets, including ETH, USDT, USDC, etc., on the Karak platform to participate in restaking and earn yields.
2. Contribution Activities: By participating in various Karak community activities, such as testnet experiences, bug reporting, community promotions, etc., users can accumulate Karak points, which will be converted into airdrop rewards in the future.
3. Loyalty Rewards: For long-term supporters of Karak, the platform will provide additional loyalty rewards based on the staking duration and participation level.

Airdrop Opportunities

According to official information, Karak will conduct airdrop activities in phases over the coming months:

• Phase One: Initial airdrop for early testnet users and bug reporters.
• Phase Two: Rewards for community activity and promotion contributors.
• Phase Three: Airdrops for all staking users after the mainnet launch.

Weekly Fundraising Report

This week, multiple projects successfully completed critical rounds of financing, spanning applications in payments, AI, gaming, and community building. According to RootData, from July 12 to July 18, a total of 17 projects announced funding, with 2 projects raising over $10 million. Among the top 10 fundraises, 3 were seed rounds. Here are the top three in terms of funding size:

Partior — Raised $60 million in a Series B round. Supported by financial giants J.P. Morgan, DBS Bank, and investment company Temasek, Partior is a blockchain platform for payment clearing and settlement. The platform focuses on providing efficient and reliable digital clearing and settlement services through blockchain technology, advancing the modernization of the financial industry.

ZAP — Secured $15 million in funding, led by Cypher Capital and Rarestone Capital. ZAP is a community-driven token distribution protocol based on Blast. It aims to provide advanced tools and services to optimize the token issuance process, enhance community engagement, and improve the success rate and fairness of token distribution.

Mira — Raised $9 million in a seed round led by Framework Ventures and Mechanism Capital. Mira is a decentralized AI infrastructure designed specifically for AI-native applications. Through its innovative platform architecture, Mira aims to provide robust, flexible, and scalable technical support for AI applications, promoting the widespread adoption and innovation of AI technology in the decentralized space.

What to Watch Next Week

Token Unlock

According to Token Unlocks data, several key token unlock events will occur next week (July 19-25, 2024). On July 25th, AltLayer (ALT) will unlock 684 million ALT, worth around $100 million, to be distributed among the team, investors, advisors, protocol development, treasury ecosystem, and community. Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock about 54.38 million tokens, accounting for 7.05% of its current circulating supply, valued at roughly $10.10 million. Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 14.89 million tokens, representing 0.87% of its current circulating supply, worth around $5.90 million.

Unlock details are as follows:

Crypto Calendar

In the upcoming week, the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry is poised to witness several pivotal events, with the release of key macroeconomic data set to significantly influence the sector.

On July 21st, the Ethereum community will initiate the Pectra Devnet 1 testnet. The Pectra upgrade includes several Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) aimed at improving account abstraction, validator operations, and overall network performance. The plan is to have multiple testing phases, with the final launch possibly happening in late 2024 or Q1 2025. This upgrade will further optimize the Ethereum user experience.[17]

From July 25 to 27, Bitcoin 2024 will take place at the Music City Center in Nashville, Tennessee. This international event will focus on the latest advancements and future trends in Bitcoin and blockchain technology, emphasing Bitcoin’s crucial role in the global financial system. The event will also explore Bitcoin’s potential applications across various industries. Notable attendees include former U.S. President Donald Trump, political commentator Russell Brand, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood, cybersecurity expert Edward Snowden, MicroStrategy executive chairman Michael Saylor, and U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

On the macroeconomic front, South Korea’s “Virtual Asset User Protection Act” will come into effect, the Thai Prime Minister will announce a digital wallet registration plan, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech on monetary policy, and the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision. These events are likely to have a profound impact on the market.

References:

1. PolyMarket, https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1721098478284
2. Watcher.Guru, https://watcher.guru/news/donald-trump-to-accept-crypto-donations-for-presidential-campaign
3. X, https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1794540423882432606
4. PanewsLab, https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articledetails/rpihy55q.html
5. SEC, https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=&CIK=&type=s-1&owner=include&count=40&action=getcurrent
6. StakingRewards, https://www.stakingrewards.com/
7. Arkham, https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/mt-gox
8. Kraken, https://support.kraken.com/hc/en-us/articles/217205128-MtGox-FAQ
9. X, https://x.com/thesendcoin/status/1806358964705096024
10. TheSendCoin, https://thesendcoin.com/
11. X, https://x.com/solana/status/1812900019235926038
12. CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/worldcoin
13. WorldCoin, https://worldcoin.org/blog/announcements/extended-lock-up-for-tfh-team-and-investors?forceLocale=true&_gl=1*kue1bl*_gcl_au*MTY2OTM4NjYzOS4xNzIxMjgyNjQw
14. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/price/fight-to-maga-fight
15. CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/aerodrome-finance
16. DefiLlama, https://defillama.com/protocol/karak#tvl-charts
17. Galaxy, https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/ethereum-all-core-developers-consensus-call-137-writeup/

Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that delivers in-depth content. This includes technical analysis, hot topic insights, market reviews, industry research, trend forecasts, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Click here to visit →

Disclaimer

Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risk, and it is recommended that users conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products they are purchasing before making any investment decisions. Gate.io is not responsible for any losses or damages caused by such investment decisions.