Fundamental & Technical Outlook
🔹 Bitcoin (BTC) 24 Hour Change: 20,368 (-1.83%)
- The correlation of BTC-Nasdaq (IXIC) remained flat for three consecutive days, implying US traders with an appetite for crypto have priced in the disappointing earnings results coming from the top five tech companies between Tuesday and Friday. : Current: 0.52; 24HR: 0.52; 1W: 0.26
🔹 Ether (ETH) 24 Hour Change: 1,515 (-2.26%)
- The correlation of ETH-SPX continued to rise with the current ratio at 0.63, while there’s been a decline of ETH-IXIC, implying the S&P 500 index will have a larger effect on the movement of Ether going into Friday: Current 0.63; 24HR: 0.58; 1W: 0.26
🔹 Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): 10,792 (-1.63%)
- Amazon & Google Earnings: Amazon plunged after hours as its sales forecast trailed estimates. Apple struggled for direction postmarket after it reported weaker-than-expected iPhone and services sales in its latest quarter.
🔹 S&P 500 (SPX): 3,807 (-0.61%）
🔹 US Q3 GDP:
The latest release of the US GDP data showed the US economy rebounded after two quarterly contractions, which briefly softened concerns of an imminent recession. But it also highlighted that consumer spending remains under pressure because of inflation.
- September: Actual: 2.6%
- September: Consensus: 2.3%
- August: -0.6%
- July: -1.6%
🔹 The Dollar Index (DXY):
- The dollar rebounded slightly Thursday after falling on Wednesday. The inverse correlation with Bitcoin
and Ether stands at -0.76 and -0.77, down from -0.51 and -0.48 a day ago, respectively, implying markets were mixed following optimistic US Q3 GDP data and in-line ECB rate hike decision which pumped the Dollar and dragged the Euro.
🔹 Eurozone (EURUSD)
- ECB Interest Rate Decision: The European Central Bank lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points -- in line with expectations -- and signaled more tightening ahead. But ECB officials weren’t unanimous about the size of the interest-rate hike and sought to avoid giving a specific signal on their next move in December.
- September: Actual: 3.75% (+0.50%)
- September: Consensus: 4.00% (-0.25%)
- August: 3.25% (+0.75%)
- July: 2.50% (+1.00%)
- June: 1.50%
🔹 Catalysts Going into Friday:
- Bank of Japan Interest Rate may remain ultra-loose at -0.1%; Last: -0.1% ; Previous: -0.1%
🔹 BTC Weekly timeframe:
- Major Level: Monthly support level of 19,858 (Monthly High of Dec. 2017)
- Closest support zone: 20,331 - 19,858;
- Key resistance level: 20,516 (61.8% Monthly Fibonacci Retracement Level)
As of Oct. 28 Asian session, Bitcoin
(BTC) was trading above the 38.2% (19,792) weekly Fibonacci Retracement level but failed to sustain above the 61.8% (21,825) level. Most recently, BTC struggled to stay afloat at the 50% (20,331) level.
As it stands, the correlation between BTC and Nasdaq composite index is unchanged at 0.52 since Wednesday, implying US traders with an appetite for crypto have priced in the disappointing earnings results coming from the top five tech companies between Tuesday and Friday.
🔹 BTC Weekly Resistance zones
1. 20,516 - 20,885
2. 21,002 - 21,284
3. 21,663 - 21,999
🔹 BTC Weekly Support zones
1. 20,331 - 19,858
2. 19,792 - 19,745
3. 18,960 - 18472
🔹 BTC Daily Timeframe:
- Closest support zone: 20,690 - 21,002
- Closest resistance zone: 20,690 - 21,002
- Key Level: 38.2% (20,319) Fibonacci Retracement level measured from the two-day spike
🔹 Oct. 27 22:21 UTC Update:
(BTC) was trading at $20,348, or down 2.44% in a 24hr period.
🔹 BTC Daily Resistance zones
1. 20,461 - 20,583
2. 20,690 - 21,002
3. 20,735 - 20,885
🔹 BTC Daily Support zones
1. 20,319 - 20,108
2. 20,071 - 19,853
3. 19,792 - 19,699
🔹 Weekly Timeframe
- Major Level - Monthly support level of 1,428 (Monthly High of Jan. 2018)
- Closest support zone: 1,456 - 1,402;
- Key resistance level: 1,475 (38.2% Monthly Fibonacci Retracement Level)
🔹 As of Oct. 28,
Ether (ETH) was trading above the 50% (1,456) Weekly Fibonacci retracement level
- but below the 38.2% (1,575) level measured from Jul. 4 - Aug. 8.
Likewise to BTC, the engulfing candle of last week indicates there is a higher probability of a retest of previous resistance levels. In the case of Ether, an important level to pay attention to is 1,428 (Monthly High of Jan. 2018). Notably, the monthly resistance level is sandwiched between the Fibonacci Extension levels (1,402 - 1,443) measured from last week.
Oct. 25’s ascension is closely related to Wall Street’s optimism for big tech earnings reports. For Ether, the sudden rise in buying volume has helped push the price above a resistance zone (1,458 - 1,428) which has now become the closest support zone.
Before the end of the week, ETH bulls will need to maintain the price above the monthly resistance level of 1,428 to sustain a bullish outlook going into next week.
🔹 ETH Weekly Resistance zones
1. 1,542 - 1,575
2. 1,611 - 1,651
3. 1,687 - 1,735
🔹 ETH Weekly Support zones
1. 1,456 - 1,402
2. 1,363 - 1,305
3. 1,263 - 1,245
🔹 ETH Daily Timeframe
- Closest support zone: 1,517 - 1,494
- Closest resistance zone: 1,576 - 1,603
- Key Level: 38.2% (1,490) Fibonacci Retracement level measured from the two-day spike
🔹 Oct. 27 23:00 UTC Update:
ETH was trading at $1,520, or down 3.09% in a 24hr period.
🔹 ETH Daily Resistance zones
1. 1,576 - 1,603
2. 1,611 - 1,639
3. 1,664 - 1,694
🔹 ETH Daily Support zones
1. 1,517 - 1,494
2. 1,488 - 1,464
3. 1,459 - 1,428
📌 The Topic of the Day: Musk finally took down Twitter
On October 27, Musk posted a video on Twitter of him entering Twitter HQ holding a sink-like thing with the posting "Entering Twitter HQ - let that sink in! ". At the same time, Musk changed his Twitter profile to "Chief Twit", seemingly confirming his identity as a Twitter leader.
Under the deadline set by a Delaware judge for the deal, Musk has until this Friday to complete the acquisition of Twitter. So by Friday, the six-month-long acquisition dispute may be officially over.
Also of Note - According to The block, the S&P 500 will remove Twitter from its stock market index on November 1st. It comes just days after Musk's successful acquisition of Twitter.
👀 Happenings of The Week (Oct. 21 - 27)
📣 Notables This Week
🔹 The European Commission has released multiple reports investigating ways to supervise DeFi this month.
This is a supplementary finding to the EU’s comprehensive Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation (MiCA) which focuses on centralized entities, namely service providers and stablecoin issuers. On Tuesday, European Commissioner Peter Kerstens called on the crypto industry to help come up with better solutions to regulate DeFi.
🔹 New amendments have been added to the UK’s Financial Services and Markets bill
that raises the bar for the nation’s crypto regulatory framework which gives the authority to government agencies to ban unauthorized service providers on top of stablecoin regulation provisions.
🔹 Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Rostin Behnam said he thinks Ether is a commodity
while Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensle
r last month suggested that proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies could fall under the definition of a security.
🔹 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler said
most crypto exchanges violate securities law by listing unregistered securities and that centralization still tends to reemerge in the sector in the name of decentralization.
🔹 According to the lawmakers, over 200 US government officials have left to join the digital asset sector.
On Oct. 24, several progressive lawmakers including Senator Elizabeth Warren submitted an inquiry to various financial agencies requesting to know how they will cut down on their staff leaving to join crypto industry firms.
📣 Oct. 27
🔹 UvToken loses 1.5 million through hacking.
The team is currently investigating the hacking incident as it is not clear how the hack took place.
🔹 In a sign of a bull season, whales scooped over $35 million in SHIB.
Crypto whales amassed over $35 million worth of Shiba Inu in preparation for the next bull run.
📣 Oct. 26
🔹 Bitcoin liquidates over $1 billion as its price rises.$704 million in cross-crypto shorts were liquidated on Oct. 25
, with Oct. 26 tally so far standing at $275 million. Including long positions, the total was over $1 billion.
🔹 The next Bitcoin rally will be in Q2, 2023.
The anticipation of the next Bitcoin
(BTC) halving will be the main catalyst that sparks a new crypto rally as soon as the second quarter of 2023, according to hedge fund manager Mark Yusko.
🔹 50% of Gen Z and Millennials in the U.S want crypto in retirement funds.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the survey also found that 43% of Gen Z and 47% of Millennials are investing in cryptocurrencies outside their 401(k) already, which could suggest the group’s affinity for the asset class.
📣 Oct. 25
🔹 Decentralized lending protocol Compound approved proposal-131 to suspend four tokens with low liquidity as lending assets.
The tokens are 0x (ZRX), basic attention token (BAT), maker (MKR), and yearn finance (YFI). The move comes as a preventive measure following the Mango Markets incident in which prices of assets with low liquidity were exploited.
🔹 Decentralized exchange Pancakeswap passed a governance proposal to deploy on the newly launched blockchain, Aptos.
Pancakeswap’s token CAKE will be natively integrated into Aptos, along with four of its DEX primary features.
🔹 Tech giant Meta partnered with makeup brand L'Oréal and French business school HEC Paris to back a new startup acceleration program called Station F for creativity in the metaverse.
The initiative aims to help businesses that specialize in 3D production, AR, VR, mixed reality, avatar creation, portability in user experience, token economy, or other topics related to the metaverse and web3.
🔹 Gaming blockchain Oasys debuts mainnet ahead of public token listing.
The blockchain’s node validators include Square Enix, Ubisoft, and Sega, among other famed gaming publishers.
🔹 Near Foundation announced a fund to replenish a $40 million collateral deficit found in USN stablecoin.
The foundation also recommended that the issuer Decentral Bank should retire the stablecoin.
📣 Oct. 24
🔹 Two Chinese intelligence officers were charged with bribing an undercover FBI agent with $61K in Bitcoin in an attempt to disrupt the prosecution of a Chinese telecommunications firm.
The Associated Press reports it is likely Huawei, though US attorney general Merrick Garland did not name the company during the announcement.
🔹 Apple updated its App Store policy to restrict apps from using NFTs.
Recently, the tech giant has been criticized for charging 30% by NFT startups when the general commission was 3%.
🔹 The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange announced a five-year strategy to develop a new platform for digital assets.
Last week, in an ongoing effort to institutionalize crypto in Israel, the Israeli Ministry of Finance's Office of the Accountant General and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange said that they will cooperate to test out digital state bonds.
📣 Oct. 22 - 23
🔹 NFT project Azuki auctioned eight Golden Skateboard NFTs which will be redeemable for physical skateboards ranging between bids of 200 ETH ($271K) to 309 ETH ($420K).
The floor price for Azuki’s anime-inspired NFT avatars was 11.5 ETH ($15.6K) as of Sunday.
🔹 Brokerage app Robinhood is looking to expand its compliance team ahead of its release of a self-custody wallet.
The platform was fined $30 million in August for failing to comply with anti-money laundering (AML) and cybersecurity regulations.
📣 Oct. 21
🔹 MakerDAO is set to move forward to transfer 1.1 billion (33%) USDC into Coinbase Custody to earn 15 million USDC in annual institutional rewards.
Recently MakerDAO partnered with Monetalis to allocate $500 million of its stablecoin reserves into short-term US treasury and investment-grade corporate bonds.
🔹 Argentina's national tax authority (AFIP) crackdown on an underground crypto mining farm led to 40 arrests.
Argentina, a non-profit organization that works closely with the agency, issued a statement declaring that “crypto mining in itself is not a crime when it adheres to local laws.”
🔹 Polkadot co-founder Gavin Wood steps down as CEO of Parity Technologies Ltd.
Back in June, Governance version 2 (or Gov2) went live to further decentralize the blockchain's decision-making.
🔹 Interpol announced it will offer online police training in its own metaverse bureau.
The initiative may be linked to technology research firm Gartner, which estimated that one in every four people will spend at least an hour a day in the metaverse to work, study, shop, and socialize by 2026.
🔹 Messaging app Telegram is soon to launch a username marketplace on The Open Network (TON) blockchain.
The username auction platform will be akin to Ethereum Name Service. TON is developed by open-source developers and is a continuation of the abandoned Telegram Open Network due to pressures from the SEC.
🔹 Y Combinator members-only OrangeDAO launched an accelerator program that features a $25,000 grant and mentorship
with web3 venture capital firm Press Start Capital. OrangeDAO raised $80 million in funding led by NEAR and Algorand in August.
📣 This week’s fundraising activities include but are not limited to:
🔹 Decentralized finance company Thala Labs raised $6 million co-led by ParaFi Capital, White Star Capital, and Shima Capital. The startup is focused on deploying DeFi products on Aptos, the latest buzz in the crypto space.
🔹 NFT startup Exclusive raised $5 million led by Dan Holzmann, co-owner of Swiss football club FC Basel, and venture capital firm Tioga Capital. The platform works with luxury brands to develop their digital asset offerings, such as Asprey Bugatti, Christian Lacroix, and Louis Moinet.
🔹 Web3 publishing platform Paragraph raised $1.7 million in a pre-seed funding round led by Lemniscap. The platform aims to help web3 writers, DAOs and NFT communities monetize their content through an all-in-one newsletter service.
📣 This week’s onchain criminal activities include but are not limited to:
🔹 Decentralized exchange QuickSwap was exploited for $200K through the use of flash loans on the XYZ lending market. The exploiter has since bridged the funds back to Ethereum, before depositing them in Tornado Cash.
Author: Gate.io Researcher Peter L.&Mashell C.
This article represents only the researcher's views and does not constitute any investment advice.
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