2025 US stock encryption gold mining guide - How to welcome this Bull Market feast?

Key point

Performance of Bitcoin Spot ETF in 2024: The total assets under management reached $115 billion, accounting for 5.7% of the current Bitcoin supply. However, it only represents approximately 1% of the total assets under management of all ETFs globally, indicating that there is still significant growth potential for crypto assets in the future.

BlackRock's bitcoin ETF dominates, as investors shift to low-cost options, Grayscale's former important position has declined. Overall, the Bitcoin spot ETF has driven institutional adoption, redefined market structure, and solidified Bitcoin's position as a mainstream asset.

③ Trump promised to make the United States the "crypto capital" and appointed Sachs as the cryptocurrency czar. With the advancement of the FIT 21 bill, the proposal of the Bitcoin reserve plan, and the shift in regulatory attitude, the crypto industry will usher in a policy spring in 2025.

2024 was an exhilarating year in cryptocurrency history. Bitcoin hit an all-time high, blockchain infrastructure significantly improved, stablecoins found product-market fit, and Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were approved. Meanwhile, US legislative and regulatory environments were paving a positive path for the industry. All of these set the stage for continued explosion in 2025.

For the US stock market, the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs is obviously significant. They expand the investment channels of retail and institutional investors in Bitcoin, attracting billions of dollars in net capital inflows and elevating this asset class from a niche asset to a mainstream one. This could be the most successful ETF in financial history, with AUM exceeding $110 billion in just one year.

In this article, the RockFlow research team will take you through the significant success of the Bitcoin spot ETF on its one-year anniversary, reviewing its top issuing institutions and the profound impact on Bitcoin and the financial markets. Most importantly, why we believe that in the era of Trump 2.0, the cryptocurrency market will usher in a new era.

1. Bitcoin Spot ETF launched for one year, the cryptocurrency market has undergone major changes.

After a decade of waiting, multiple rejections of applications, and false news that caught the crypto market off guard, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved the launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, 2024.

Shortly thereafter, 11 ETFs entered the market one after another, competing to attract capital inflows. The issuers include traditional financial giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity, with assets under management totaling trillions of dollars, as well as native crypto institutions like Bitwise.

The Bitcoin spot ETF has attracted a lot of capital since its inception. The accelerated inflow of funds coincides with a period of high market sentiment, bringing fresh blood to various fields in the crypto ecosystem. Although there was a period of downturn in the summer of 2024, Trump's victory in the November US presidential election once again boosted optimism, and the inflow of ETFs strengthened again.

As of now, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF is about 32 billion US dollars, holding more than 1.1 million Bitcoins, equivalent to a total asset size of 115 billion US dollars. These positions currently account for about 5.7% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin.

On the other hand, Bitcoin spot ETF accounts for only about 1% of the total assets under management of all ETFs worldwide, indicating that crypto assets still have tremendous growth potential in the future.

Who is behind such abundant funding? In fact, Bitcoin spot ETF mainly targets three groups of people - individual investors, wealth advisors and institutional investors. The 13F document discloses the buyers behind the Bitcoin spot ETF, including retail and professional investors, as well as financial institutions such as hedge funds, Goldman Sachs, Millennium Management, etc. This reflects the growing interest of the financial market in including Bitcoin in investment portfolios, and Bitcoin spot ETF serves as a perfect bridge between traditional finance and the crypto world.

The RockFlow research team predicts that capital inflows will continue to accelerate in 2025. With the relaxation of regulatory conditions, we will also see broader participation from pension funds, family offices, and charitable funds. Optimistically, the AUM of Bitcoin spot ETF may double.

2 The issuers of ETFs and how they affect Bitcoin itself

Once, GBTC, under Grayscale, was the most important tool for indirect investment in Bitcoin, but with the bulk launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, GBTC has gradually faced challenges due to its high management fees. New investors (and even existing ones) mostly turn to the newly launched Bitcoin spot ETFs, as their fees are generally around 0.2% (many even start at 0 fees), far lower than GBTC's 1.5%.

In addition, GBTC is also seeking change, actively splitting another lower fee Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) as a low-cost alternative to GBTC.

From the perspective of issuing institutions, BlackRock and Fidelity are clearly the biggest winners. Taking BlackRock as an example, its Bitcoin spot ETF, IBIT, currently holds about 540,000 Bitcoins, which accounts for half of all Bitcoins held by ETFs. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin holdings of GBTC, under Grayscale, have sharply decreased from 600,000 Bitcoins to 200,000 Bitcoins, making it the biggest loser.

On the other hand, BlackRock's IBIT assets under management have nearly reached $60 billion, far exceeding the size of BlackRock's largest gold ETF, IAU ($35 billion), further consolidating Bitcoin's position as the "digital gold". According to Bloomberg ETF analyst statistics, IBIT reached the milestone of $50 billion in AUM in just 227 trading days, breaking the previous record of 1323 days set by iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG).

Investors choose physical gold and silver to support Bitcoin spot ETF due to their interest in Bitcoin, while Bitcoin spot ETF also affects the price and market structure of Bitcoin itself. According to Coin Metrics analysis, as a stable demand source for Bitcoin, the net inflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETF has a significant impact on Bitcoin price.

The following chart shows that large inflows or outflows of Bitcoin spot ETF funds almost always occur simultaneously with major fluctuations in Bitcoin prices.

Especially during periods of strong market momentum or increased inflows of funds, the correlation between the two often strengthens. This indicates that the purchase of Bitcoin by issuing institutions to meet the demands of ETF investors has become a structural driving factor for the increase in Bitcoin prices. With the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices, the attractiveness of ETF products to retail and institutional investors has increased, thereby forming a mutually reinforcing feedback loop and attracting more capital inflows.

Of course, it is important to note that the two trends are not completely consistent, because in addition to spot ETFs, the broader macro environment, investor sentiment, and the market impact of institutions such as MicroStrategy also play an important role.

3 Trump 2.0 era, the encryption market will usher in a brand new situation

The RockFlow research team believes that the cryptocurrency market will further rise in 2025, mainly because the crypto-friendly President Trump officially takes office in the White House. In the previous year, he expressed support for the crypto economy multiple times during his campaign, and his promises at that time included but were not limited to:

SEC's current chairman Gary Gensler, who has repeatedly 'troubled' the crypto industry, is fired,

Reduce the sentence of the founder of the Silk Road,

End the suppression and "crusade" against cryptocurrencies in the United States,

Prevent the United States from further developing CBDC,

Build the United States into the world's "cryptocurrency capital",

Prevent the United States from selling its holdings of Bitcoin,

Establish strategic Bitcoin reserves,

Suggest using cryptocurrency to solve the US debt problem,

Appoint a cryptocurrency advisory committee and promote rules that are "developed by people who love the industry", etc.

Now, the newly appointed Trump is indeed steadily advancing the commitment to the cryptocurrency industry at that time. Therefore, by 2025, the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress may bring significant changes to the cryptocurrency field - which is a welcome change for industry participants.

In addition, in this round of the US general election, the cryptocurrency industry has begun to "show its vigor" and has become one of the important financiers of the general election: According to relevant reports, the Super Political Action Committee (PAC) Fairshake, which supports cryptocurrency, has raised over 200 million US dollars from the cryptocurrency industry to help support cryptocurrency candidates win. It mainly targets Republican and key Democratic candidates, and this move is expected to continue to bring much-needed regulatory clarity to the cryptocurrency industry.

It is worth mentioning that as early as December 2024, Trump appointed former PayPal executive Sachs as the White House 'AI and Cryptocurrency Tsar'. Sachs is seen as a supporter of innovation and the cryptocurrency industry, and some cryptocurrency practitioners believe that this 'cryptocurrency tsar' is expected to bring more positives in supporting digital assets.

In addition, during the last session of Congress, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Financial Innovation and Technology Act of the 21st Century (FIT 21), aiming to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets and allocate jurisdiction between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). While FIT 21 did not meet all the requirements of the cryptocurrency industry, it represents the most significant effort made by the U.S. Congress to date.

In addition, there is renewed interest in establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Cynthia Lummis, a Republican senator from Wyoming, recently introduced the Bitcoin Bill, which aims to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States and develop a structured Bitcoin purchase plan.

In addition to the above, the RockFlow research team expects that the Federal Reserve and other financial regulatory agencies in the United States will re-examine the encryption policies of the Biden era. Since 2021, regulatory agencies have exerted pressure on banks by issuing multiple related interpretations, requiring them to "cancel" controversial encryption businesses, essentially preventing banks from engaging in custody and other activities. Given that Trump has promised to protect the encryption industry from regulatory "persecution," the withdrawal of these interpretations signifies a significant shift in regulation.

Finally, the increase in capital market activities in the crypto industry is also a significant positive factor. With the improvement of regulatory transparency, coupled with factors such as continued investor attention, increased institutional adoption rates, and increased venture capital, related capital market activities (including IPOs) are expected to increase significantly. As the crypto economy continues to mature, the convergence of regulatory development and market enthusiasm will create more opportunities for public listing, M&A transactions, and deeper institutional participation.

Conclusion

RockFlow research team believes that financial products represented by Bitcoin spot ETF are reshaping the landscape of cryptocurrency investments, attracting funds from both institutions and retail investors, and driving structural demand for Bitcoin. In the past year, they have proven their potential for legitimizing and expanding use cases for cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, although Ethereum ETF has started slowly, its good development momentum is gradually emerging, and investors' demand for it is increasing. As the market further matures, new opportunities may further increase the attractiveness of the cryptocurrency market to traditional financial investors. The next wave of ETF inflows may unleash greater growth.

In 2025, with the expected warming of crypto-friendly policies, clarification of regulatory environment, continuous entry of institutional investors, and favorable factors such as strategic reserve plans, the cryptocurrency market will usher in a new growth cycle.