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Gate.io AMA: ETH Perpetual Contract Analysis
24 September 09:31
Q : I would love to learn how to analyze ETH so badly . Can you teach me ?
A : Sure
Draft time: 09:32BKK, Sept. 21, 2021
From K-line pattern of ETH, the market is diving down.
Let me explain some elements so you can understand why.
1.From Twitter @whale_alert, on Sept. 19th, the dormant address of below containing 616BTC has been activated after 8.8 years. From this news, I felt the warning.
Q : What you can see from this news?
A : It shows the holders are not confident in this market anymore. To avoid more loss, they will need to clear it from their own pockets.
From this dormant address's activation, there are continuously the deliveries from some wallets to all exchanges. The market is obviously going down.
Please go to this twitter and you can see several big transfers of ETH.
And from one day ago, the price of ETH was diving down. I tried one order and it was liquidated.
Well, a lot of users may ask, the trend is going down, then I should proceed SELL order. I should win it, right？Why finally I lost it?
Let's analyze from psycholocial side and technical side.
Psychological side
1.It depends on the psychological status of the traders, some are still hoping the price can go upper, so the coins they are holding will have more value. Basically, nobody wants to see the market really going low.
2.Why has the dormant address've been activated? Because after a long time of low market status, most of the users are losing confidence. They are not expecting the price to go up, they only want to make sure they will not lose it. So they decided to sell out all the coins that they had and to get the money back.
3.Remember what we talked in AMA of Trading Psychology, "The way you think influences what you decide to do. That in turn influences the market movements and helps form the aggregate market psychology".
During the down trend, the price flucturation will become more acute. Some hoping go up, some hoping go low.
Under this status, control the position and shorten the time frame. Earn the reasonable profit and withdraw. As a single trader, you can never compete with whales.
Q : How about the technical side ?
A : Here are some pictures
1M
1W
1D
8H
4H
1H
30M
5M
Q : I can see from above, the trend showed in 1M/1W/1D/8H/4H all going down right ?
A : Yes correct ! Can you tell me which one is going up ?
Q : Yes ! I can
From 1H pattern, MACD is going up.
And from 30M, MACD is also going up.
But from 5M, MACD is a little bit going low, am I right ?
A : You are correct.
Q : Ok, what can wee see from all these patterns?
A : we can see
1.The whole trend is going low.
2.The market is fluctuating, from 5m-1hr.
Q : Oh then what can we do here?
A : We can
1.Check 5m and 30m patterns, when you see the cross of MA lines and make decision to BUY LONG or SELL SHORT.
2.Set up time frame of no more than 15mins. It means you need to watch the fluctuation after you place the order.
3.Watch the price in order book, if you see the price is up and down within 5m, it means the short term trend is not clear. Hold it and observe more.
Conclusion:
1.Under this situation, don't expect to earn 1000 points.
2.Take ETH as the example, if you can win 20-50 points, you already can earn the money.
3.Before the ending of this AMA draft, I checked again Twitter@whale_alert.
From below, they start to withdraw ETH from the exchanges to wallets. If later on there are continuous withdraws, the price may go up again.
Remember, be calm and focus!
Wish you good luck!
Q : OK. I will be calm and focus
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