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    Gate.io Blog Daily News | BTC, ETH Plunged As Uncertainties Over Supply Chains Build Up Amid Disappointing Black Friday Sales And Chinese Civil Unrest

    Daily News | BTC, ETH Plunged As Uncertainties Over Supply Chains Build Up Amid Disappointing Black Friday Sales And Chinese Civil Unrest

    28 November 11:27



    Fundamental & Technical Outlook:


    Macro

    🥂 Good morning, today is Monday, Nov. 28, 2022.


    TL;DR

    🔹 Bitcoin and Ether fell as soon as markets opened Monday, caused by disappointing US retail conditions during the Thanksgiving holiday and amid civil unrest trending in China.

    🔹 Monday will be relatively quiet on the macro front, but beginning on Tuesday a series of countries are slated to report on their GDP growth rates, inflation rates, and employment data.

    🔹 Friday’s US non-farm payroll (NFP), unemployment rate, and Fed Chair Powell’s speech will be the emphasis of the week.

    🔹 The topic of the Day: Twitter 2.0 - How Musk is trying to make Twitter the most valuable company

    🔹 Happenings of the Week: MobileCoin was up over 300% caused by Twitter's launch of Signal encrypted private messaging; Musk said he will produce his own smartphone if Google and Apple take down Twitter; Telegram now supports trading BTC and TON directly in the app chat interface…


    ⚡️ Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Change: 16,103 (-2.25%)

    ⚡️ Ether (ETH) 24-Hour Change: 1,165 (-3.75%)


    US’s Not-So-Black-Friday & China’s Covid-Zero-Induced Unrests

    Due to disappointing sales conditions on Black Friday in the US, and amid civil unrest in the second-largest economy, Bitcoin and Ether have plunged as soon as markets open on Monday after performing sluggishly over the weekend due to a decline in trading volume.

    Bitcoin’s correlations with the Dollar Index (DXY) as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) remain high at 0.89 and 0.67, falling slightly from 0.9 and 0.7 Friday. On the other hand, BTC’s inverse correlations with US equity indices are around -0.8 on average, rising slightly from figures last seen on Friday.

    In a snapshot, Chinese equities led the declines Monday, with weakness also evident in Australia, Japan and South Korea. US futures dropped as modest customer traffic and heavy discounting by American retailers on Black Friday added to the downbeat tone.

    According to Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo Holdings LLC, “Markets will respond negatively to the widespread protests and rising case numbers, which are likely to trigger new supply-chain disruptions and dampen consumption demand, at least in the short term.”

    The downbeat mood emanating from China contrasts with the boost to sentiment in global markets last week after the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 1-2 meeting minutes showed most officials backing slowing the pace of interest-rate hikes.

    Amid the challenges in China, the nation’s central bank on Friday cut the amount of cash lenders must hold in reserve for the second time this year, an escalation of support for an economy that’s being weighed down by Covid curbs.

    Gold edged lower as the dollar strengthened, placing downward pressure on the precious metal. Oil fell as developments in China hurt appetite for risk and the outlook for demand, adding to stresses in an already-fragile global market.

    This week, all eyes will be on the US jobs report Friday and on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams, who are among central bank officials scheduled to speak.

    Monday will be relatively quiet on the macro front, but beginning on Tuesday a series of countries are slated to report on their GDP growth rates, inflation rates, and employment data.


    2️⃣ Tuesday

    13:00 UTC

    Germany Inflation Rate YoY NOV

    Actual: Awaiting Data; Consensus: 10.3%; Previous: 10.4%

    Inflation Rate MoM Prel NOV

    Actual: Awaiting Data; Consensus: -0.2%; Previous: 0.9%

    • In OCT, the annual inflation rate in Germany was at 10.4%, matching the preliminary reading and hitting a fresh peak since the reunification, amid euro weakness, a deepening energy crisis, and lingering supply chain issues.
    • The goods inflation rose to 17.8% in October from 17.2% a month earlier, led by high cost of energy (43.0% vs 43.9% in September) and an acceleration in food prices (20.3% vs 18.7%). Also, cost of services quickened (4.0% vs 3.6%), with rent prices rising further by 1.8%.
    • The prices of energy products increased sharply, especially for natural gas (109.8%), heating oil (35.6%), electricity (26.0%), and motor fuels (22.3%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.9% in October.
    • The CPI, harmonized to compare with other European countries, increase 11.6% on the year, the highest level on record; and went up 1.1% month-on-month.


    13:30 UTC

    Canada Q3 GDP YoY

    Actual: Awaiting Data; Consensus: 1.5%; Previous: 3.3%

    GDP Growth Rate QoQ

    Actual: Awaiting Data; Consensus: 0.4%; Previous: 0.8%

    • In Q2, the GDP in Canada expanded by 0.8 percent during the three months leading to June 2022, equaling the growth rate from the previous period to mark four consecutive quarters of growth.
    • The accumulation of business inventories contributed the most to growth in non-farm and farming inventory investments. Final consumption expenditure grew by 1.7 percent, with solid contributions from household spending on semi-durable goods (5.6 percent) and services (3.9 percent).
    • On the other hand, net foreign demand contributed negatively to real GDP growth, as the substantial rise in imports (6.9 percent) outpaced the slight rebound for exports (2.6 percent). On an annualized basis, the economy expanded by 3.3 percent, missing expectations of a 4.4 percent growth.


    5️⃣ Friday

    07:00 UTC

    Germany GfK Consumer Climate DEC

    Actual: -40.2; Consensus: -39.6; Previous: -41.9

    According to GfK consumer expert Rolf Bürkl, “Consumers' long-standing fear of skyrocketing energy prices has currently eased, which is having a slightly positive impact on consumer sentiment. On the one hand, some energy prices have recovered a bit, and on the other hand, consumers apparently assume the measures adopted to cap energy prices can help curb inflation, even if this may turn out to be rather modest.”

    • The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator in Germany rose to -40.2 heading into December from -41.9 in November, but still slightly lower than market expectations of -39.6. The latest reading marked a further stabilization in sentiment amid government energy measures, with both economic conditions (-17.9 vs -22.2) and income expectations (-54.3 vs -60.5) increasing.
    • Meantime, the willingness to buy was marginally lower (-18.6 vs -17.5), as consumers are still putting aside money in anticipation of exploding energy bills in the coming months. The index hit its record low of -42.8 in October.


    💡 Today's Markets at 01:04 UTC

    BTC +0.23%; Ether +0.29%.

    Asia: Japan -0.50%; Hong Kong -0.49**%**; China +0.40%; India +0.15%.

    Europe: London -0.32%; Paris +0.08%; Frankfurt +0.01%.

    Index Futures: Dow -0.31%; S&P -0.48%; Nasdaq -0.65%.

    US Two-year Treasury up 2bps at 4.461%.

    US Ten-year Treasury up 2bps at 3.683%.

    UK Ten-year Government up 7bps at 3.111%.

    US Dollar Index +0.21% at 105.87.

    FX: GBP: -0.21%; EUR: -0.11%; JPY: -0.16%; CNY: +0.20%.

    **Gold -**0.24%; Brent Crude -2.00%.


    🗓 Catalysts this week

    • Monday: None
    • Tuesday: Germany CPI, Canada GDP
    • Wednesday: US GDP, US Employment Change, China NBD PMI, India GDP, Eurozone CPI, France CPI, Italy CPI, Turkey GDP
    • Thursday: China Caixin PMI, US Income & Spending, US ISM PMI, Japan Consumer Confidence, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Italy Unemployment Rate, Brazil GDP
    • Friday: US Non-Farm Payroll & Unemployment Rate, Germany Balance of Trade, Canada Unemployment Rate



    🏦 BTC

    BTC Weekly timeframe:

    • Major Level: 13,965 (Monthly High of Jun. 2019)
    • Closest support zone: 16,400 - 16,220
    • Key resistance level: 16,400 - 16,880



    Analysis as of Nov. 28 - Dec. 4 Session.

    BTC Weekly Resistance zones

    1. 16,400 - 16,880
    2. 17,085 - 17,715
    3. 17,875 - 18,246

    BTC Weekly Support zones

    1. 16,400 - 16,220
    2. 15,950 - 15,830
    3. 15,525 - 15,200


    BTC Daily Timeframe:

    • Closest support zone: 16,305 - 16,150
    • Closest resistance zone: 16,630 - 16,800
    • Key Level: 15,952 (Weekly Close Between Nov. 02 - 09, 2020)



    Nov. 28 00:52 UTC Update:

    Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $16,457, or +0.02% in a 24hr period.

    BTC Daily Resistance zones

    1. 16,630 - 16,800
    2. 16,875 - 17,085
    3. 17,205 - 17,370

    BTC Daily Support zones

    1. 16,305 - 16,150
    2. 16,010 - 15,950
    3. 15,860 - 15,580



    🌐 ETH

    Weekly Timeframe

    • Major Level - 757 (Monthly High of Dec. 2020)
    • Closest support zone: 1,110 - 1,060
    • Key resistance zone: 1,220 - 1,265



    Analysis as of Nov. 28 - Dec. 4 Session.

    ETH Weekly Resistance zones

    1. 1,220 - 1,265
    2. 1,280 - 1,330
    3. 1,345 - 1,390

    ETH Weekly Support zones

    1. 1,110 - 1,060
    2. 1,035 - 990
    3. 910 - 795


    ETH Daily Timeframe

    • Closest support zone: 1,175 - 1,160
    • Closest resistance zone: 1,220 - 1,240
    • Key Level: 1,010 (Weekly High from Dec. 28, 2020 - Jan. 04, 2021)



    Nov. 28 01:02 UTC Update:

    ETH was trading at $1,195, or -1.14% in a 24hr period.

    ETH Daily Resistance zones

    1. 1,220 - 1,240
    2. 1,255 - 1,270
    3. 1,295 - 1,315

    ETH Daily Support zones

    1. 1,175 - 1,160
    2. 1,140 - 1,120
    3. 1,110 - 1,065



    📌 Today's topic: Twitter 2.0 - How Musk is trying to make Twitter the most valuable company


    On November 27, Musk disclosed via social media a PowerPoint presentation at Twitter Inc. which involved the content of Twitter 2.0, including "Ads as a Service", video, encrypted private messaging, long tweets, and optimization of blue marker verification function, but plans for payment function were left blank on purpose, whetting everyone's appetite.

    According to crypto KOL Willy Woo, the blank payment feature section is the key to why Musk thinks Twitter could be the most valuable company in the world. Musk had founded payments company X.com, which later merged with Confinity, a company founded by Peter Thiel, to become PayPal, now known as a payments agency, and the strategy Musk had planned to pursue at PayPal was allegedly not executed in time before the company was acquired by eBay, the largest e-commerce company at the time.

    In a conversation with Baron Capital, Musk said that if his strategy had been implemented, PayPal would have been the most valuable financial institution in the world.

    Later, Twitter user Jane Manchun Wong (@wongmjane) said that Twitter would also integrate the Signal protocol for developing encrypted private messaging features, and that code adoption of the Signal protocol could be seen in Twitter's IOS app. Perhaps, as a result, the price of MobileCoin's native Token MOB, a mobile privacy payment program that works with the Signal app, has risen sharply since early this morning, hitting $3.72 at one point and now at $1.64.

    The Signal protocol (formerly known as the TextSecure protocol) is a non-interconnected encryption protocol that can be used to provide end-to-end encryption for voice calls, video calls, and instant messaging sessions. The protocol was developed by Open Whisper Systems in 2013 and was first introduced in the open-source TextSecure application, which was later updated to Signal.

    With plans for Twitter 2.0 in the works, and Musk giving plenty of room for imagination, are you optimistic about the future of Twitter?


    👁 Happenings of The Week (Nov. 25 - 28):


    📣 Notables

    🔹 Putin calls for building international clearing solutions based on blockchain and digital currencies.

    🔹 Hong Kong Treasury Secretary: New licensing regime for virtual asset service providers to be launched in coming months.

    🔹 China's Central Bank will lower the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on December 5.

    🔹 Hangzhou, China: New government policy to support the integrated application of new technologies such as metaverse and blockchain in the field of animation games and e-sports.

    🔹 Belgium HKMA: Cryptocurrencies without issuers such as BTC and ETH are not securities and do not need to comply with financial rules.

    🔹 Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will further deepen cooperation with the UK Treasury in the field of crypto assets.


    📣 Nov. 28

    🔹 Crypto bloggers are gathering in the Bahamas, with many claiming to be joining the search for SBF.

    🔹 Telegram now supports trading BTC and TON directly in the app chat interface.

    🔹 The number of addresses holding 1 - 10 BTC is at a record high of nearly 800,000.


    📣 Nov. 27

    🔹 LG tops metaverse patent rankings, Huawei, Meta among top five.

    🔹 Privacy project MobileCoin up over 300% in 24 hours, influenced by Twitter's launch of Signal encrypted private messaging.

    🔹 Number of Addresses Holding 0.1 Bitcoins Reaches Record High of 4,069,920.

    🔹 Swiss mobile app developer BIZI LABS launches flagship Web3 smartphone with Polygon integration.

    🔹 Bloomberg: $84.1 Million Donated to U.S. Politicians by Crypto Industry Players, 84% from SBF and FTX Executives.


    📣 Nov. 26

    🔹 Musk will produce his own smartphone if Google and Apple take down Twitter.

    🔹 CZ: FTX's collapse is nothing like Luna, expect crypto industry to improve next year

    🔹 Multiple U.S. regulators are investigating whether Genesis Global Capital violated securities laws


    📣 Nov. 25

    🔹 Tiantian Kullander, co-founder of Amber Group, died unexpectedly.

    🔹 Jihan Wu's crypto financial services platform Matrixport is looking to raise $100 million at a $1.5 billion valuation.

    🔹 Solana Foundation Loses Over $180 Million Worth of Crypto Assets Due to FTX Bankruptcy.

    🔹 Crypto Wallet Maker Ledger Launches Crypto Debit Card "Crypto Life" in Europe.

    🔹 Amazon commissions independent film and TV production company AGBO for a TV series about FTX.

    🔹 CoinList: Charging Delays are Technical Issues, Not Liquidity Crunch; Will Release Proof of Reserves


    📣 This week’s fundraising activities include but are not limited to:

    🔹 Web3 game development company Midnight closed a $7.5 million seed round led by Shima Capital and others. Founded in late 2021, Midnight currently has more than 60 full-time employees and aims to create real value for players and build a world of IP-based games using blockchain technology. Its products include Next Protectors, a 2D pixel fighting game, and Legion, a 4X MMO game.

    🔹 DAO tool XDAO closes $2.3 million seed round with participation from Panony and others. XDAO CEO Vlad Shavlidze said the round was completed through Token sales and the terms of the funding include a 12-month lock-up period and 36-month linear vesting period, as well as Token economics tailored to crypto bears.

    🔹 NFT perpetual contract trading platform nftperp closed a $1.7 million seed round of funding, with a post-investment valuation of $17 million. flow Ventures and others participated in the round. It is reported that nftperp tracks the lowest price of NFT pools and allows users to go long and short NFT.


    📣 This week’s on-chain criminal activities include but are not limited to:

    🔹 FTX Hack Update: On November 25, on-chain analyst ZachXBT posted on social media that the FTX hacker "FTX Accounts Drainer" has laundered 360 BTC by using the crypto-mixer ChipMixer, nearly $6 million at current prices.

    🔹 Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf NFT has a data breach security vulnerability and should be vigilant. According to the Sheepdog vulnerability monitoring system of Supremacy's security team, the Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf NFT project of AoFei Entertainment is vulnerable to a generic security vulnerability, CVE-2022-38217, previously disclosed by Supremacy. The vulnerability could lead to the early disclosure of metadata for all NFTs in the project, allowing hackers to pre-screen valuable NFTs and then target the casting of specified NFTs by monitoring Mempool and finally selling them in the secondary market for profit. Previously Supremacy has tried to contact the official through Discord, but as of this writing the official did not have any response.



    Author: Gate.io Researcher Peter L. & Byron B.
    This article represents only the researcher's views and does not constitute any investment advice.
    Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced.
    In all other cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
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