EMC Labs BTC Weekly Observation (12.02~12.08): Small steps up, BTC launches a battle for $100,000 amidst divergence.

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The information, opinions, and judgments regarding markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Since approaching the psychological barrier of $100,000, BTC has been oscillating around the $90,000 to $100,000 range. With the moving averages gradually sticking together, forming a psychological support, BTC broke through the $100,000 mark twice this week, surging to a high of $104,000.

BTC opened at $97259.17 and closed at $101174.99 against the US dollar this week, with a pump of 4.02% throughout the week and effectively enlarged volume.

Although the political turmoil in South Korea has had a temporary impact on the price of BTC, and as we emphasized in last week's report, there is a short-term significant pump, the market has a consolidation demand, and there has been some adjustment in the past week, with a maximum amplitude of 12.26%. However, both sentiment and funds are currently in an effective support stage, which is difficult to affect the long-term upward trend of prices.

Federal Reserve and Economic Data

The U.S. non-farm data released this week was as good as expected, but market expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed surged to 86%.

During the interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he feels "very good about the current state of the economy and monetary policy, so the process of lowering the interest rate to the neutral interest rate can be more cautious." This statement is just slightly hawkish. His further statement that "the good relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will continue under the new government" has reassured the market even more.

Powell also specifically talked about his views on BTC - "BTC is used as a speculative asset; BTC's competitor is gold, not the dollar." This statement is also meaningful.

The three major stock indexes rose and fell differently, with the Nasdaq rising 3.34% for the week, the S&P 500 rising 0.96%, and the Dow Jones falling slightly by 0.6%.

The US Dollar Index fell slightly this week, closing at 106.06. Gold continued to slide slightly.

Stablecoin and BTC Spot ETF

The two major channels are still experiencing explosive inflows of funds. The total inflow for the week exceeded 8.7 billion, indicating that BTC at the $100,000 level still has strong buying power. As BTC approaches $100,000, the ongoing Altseason has also continued to attract stablecoin channel funds.

This week, the inflow scale of BTC Spot ETF exceeded 2 billion US dollars, still showing a high level of inflow. Especially considering the outflow status of the channel funds in the week of adjustment after BTC approached the 100,000 mark the week before last, the inflow of this week has eliminated certain market concerns.

Stablecoin inflow reached 5.881 billion, the second largest inflow week in this cycle. Currently, a large amount of stablecoins has been injected into Centralized Exchanges and Smart Contract lending DApps, providing ample liquidity to the market.

This also directly triggered Altseason, with the market rising across the board and the market sentiment exceptionally excited.

dumping

As the market starts, dumping also occurs in synchronization.

According to the monitoring of EMC Labs eMerge engine, over 240,000 BTC flowed into centralized exchanges this week, mainly through short-term dumping. However, with strong buying support, all selling pressure was absorbed, and centralized exchanges recorded a net outflow of over 28,000 coins.

The continuous dumping by short hands has caused a significant decline in the floating profit level of this group, from the previous highest 34% floating profit to the current 24%.

For the upward trend in November only, the selling pressure is currently in a normal state and decreasing. This provides support for BTC to reach $100,000.

Cycle Indicators

EMC BTC Cycle Metrics is 0.875, and the market is in the rise period, showing a strong rise status.

END

EMC Labs (Emerging Laboratory) was founded by encryption asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on Block chain industry research and secondary market investments in Crypto, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitiveness, committed to participating in the thriving Block chain industry through research and investment, and promoting Block chain and encryption assets for the benefit of humanity.

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