First Line | BTC long-term holder all profit, can AI meme leading GOAT lead the market?

Daily Digest: BTC ETF outflows exceeded $100 million again in a single day, all long-term BTC holders are profitable

According to Farside Investor data, the US BTCSpot ETF had a net outflow of $122 million yesterday. Fidelity FBTC had an outflow of $95.7 million, and Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of $36.1 million.

Yesterday, the US ETH Spot ETF saw a small outflow of $9.5 million. Among them, Grayscale ETHE had an outflow of $20.1 million, Grayscale Mini Trust ETH had an inflow of $16.3 million, and BlackRock ETHA data has not been updated yet.

Suilend native Token SEND will be launched on December 12th

Sui lending protocol Suilend announced that SEND will be launched on December 12, and the allocation checker has been launched. Early users of Suilend before the launch of Points in May 2024 will receive 2% of SEND, and Suilend points account for 18% of SEND; Rootlets will receive 3.333% of SEND, divided into three Airdrops, each 1.111%.

Pantera Founder: BTC price may reach $740,000 in April 2028

Pantera founder Dan Morehead predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) may skyrocket to $740,000 as Donald Trump, who supports blockchain, is re-elected as the president of the United States.

Morehead said that its Pantera Bitcoin Fund, which focuses on Crypto Assets, has achieved a historical return of 131,165% since its establishment in 2013. 'BTC has completed a threefold rise,' he said, 'and it seems possible to do it again.'

According to Morehead's theory, BTC has been on a trend line, and if it continues to maintain the rise mode, by April 2028, its price may reach $740,000. Since Pantera began investing, BTC has almost doubled every year, with a compound annual growth rate of about 88%.

He added, 'This number is not unimaginable compared to the $500 trillion financial assets.' At a price of $740,000, Bitcoin's market capitalization will reach $15 trillion.

Glassnode: All 14 million BTC held by long-term holders are now in a profitable state.

According to Glassnode data, as the price of BTC pumps, all 14 million BTC held by long-term holders are now in a profitable state, sparking an acceleration in dumping activity, resulting in a significant decrease of over 200,000 BTC since the historical high point breakthrough.

Long-term holders began to take profits when the price was strong and the demand was sufficient to absorb them. In this process, ETFs played a key role in absorbing over 90% of the selling pressure from long-term holders. However, as unrealized profits reach more extreme levels, it is expected that more long-term holders will accelerate selling, and this selling has exceeded the inflow of ETFs in the short term.

However, due to the large number of BTC held by long-term holders, many long-term holders may be waiting for a higher price before releasing more BTC back into circulation.

Market Analysis: Layer1 collectively pump, GOAT significantly Rebound

Market Hotspots

AI meme leading GOAT has experienced a significant rebound, with an intraday volatility of nearly 30%. GOAT currently has a circulating market cap of 830 million US dollars and ranks 151st in the market. AI is still one of the most important narratives in this round of the market, and compared to leading projects in the AI track such as NEAR and FET, GOAT still has plenty of room to grow.

Layer1 public chain INJ, FTM, ALGO, SEI and other collectively pumped. INJ is an old public chain, although its on-chain ecosystem is not much, but it has strong funding behind it, and even created a 50-fold increase in the Bear Market; SEI is a new public chain in this round of market, with a circulating Market Cap of 2.9 billion US dollars, ranking 47th in the entire market;

ETH Ethereum stake protocol leading EIGEN 24-hour pump 10%, EIGEN's current circulation rate is low, with a circulating Market Cap of only $640 million, but its FDV is as high as $5.7 billion. If ETH ETF allows stake in the future in terms of policies, funds may flow into stake protocol in large quantities;

Market Trend

BTC is still trading in a narrow range around $93,000. Except for BlackRock, other BTC Spot ETFs are mostly experiencing net outflows;

The strength of ETH did not last long. The market's decline led ETH to fall back to around $3350. ETH still needs to wait for BTC to break the psychological barrier of $100,000 before it can have independent market performance.

Alts touch bottom Rebound, early strong tokens like GOAT, MOODENG Long Wick CandleRebound;

Macro News: U.S. stocks close higher as market expects 62.8% chance of Fed rate cut

The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.57% to 6021.63 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.28% to 44860.31 points; and the Nasdaq rising by 0.63% to 19174.30 points. The 10-year Treasury yield, Benchmark, stands at 4.30%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to the Intrerest Rate policy of the Federal Reserve, is at 4.21%.

The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of the November 6-7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to projections in the minutes, the Fed may cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. At its November meeting, the Fed decided to cut the target range for the federal funds Intrerest Rate by 25 basis points, bringing its benchmark fund Intrerest Rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, and said that further adjustments to its monetary policy stance would help keep the economy and labor market strong while continuing to push inflation further down. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will keep the current Intrerest Rate unchanged by December is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 62.8%.

Author: Icing, Gate.io Researcher This article represents only the author's point of view and does not constitute any trading advice. Investment carries risks, and decisions should be made with caution. This content is original and copyrighted by Gate.io. Please indicate the author and source when reproducing, otherwise legal responsibility will be pursued.