The endorsement of celebrities and social media influencers is often a contrarian indicator financially, especially for those unreliable financial endorsements.

Based on past experience, when the market approaches its peak, fraudulent activities will become rampant.

Fraudsters will redouble their efforts, and various fraudulent methods will emerge endlessly, such as forged exchange websites, large-scale phishing attacks, and those fraudulent projects or Ponzi Schemes that embezzle funds through Rug Pull.

Billions of dollars of Cryptocurrency will be trapped into fiat currency, which will lead to a significant outflow of funds in the market, causing an impact on market liquidity.

4) Google Trends indicator for "buying cryptocurrency"

The common phrase used to be '购买BTC', but it is no longer the case now for various reasons, which we won't go into detail here.

The key point is that this chart lags behind for a few weeks. It does not reflect the current interest in Crypto Assets, but lags behind by about a week.

Here are the charts and their interpretation methods:

When we see parabolic pump trends like 2021, it's good news for those who have already invested, but it means high risk for newbies. That's the nature of the market, and you need to decide which side you want to be on.

Now, this chart shows early investors starting to profit, while new get on board investors face greater financial risk.

In the frenzy stage, it's time to consider selling instead of making unwise investment decisions.

In this high emotional state, you must act swiftly and decisively.

Selling strategies can vary, but just a reminder, completely exiting the investment is not always the most ideal choice.

5) retail investor panic

The widespread panic of retail investors (fear of missing out) is a reliable indicator of market tops. 'Fear of missing out' is a common psychological phenomenon that can lead to unwise investment decisions.

Although fear of missing out can be 'shorted', be careful, as the market may remain irrational for a period of time.

6) The price soared to an unrealistic level (waiting for a parabolic trend)

You all know that you should avoid buying in this situation:

However, at the market peak, volume will always reach its peak.

At this time, most potential investors (usually the target audience of retail investors) will enter the market and buy.

Meanwhile, smart money that bought in early will quickly and silently exit the market because the news and publications they control will still appear positive.

7）Cryptocurrency has become a symbol of social status

Possessing Crypto Assets has become a symbol of social status.

You will see people wearing hats, clothes, and accessories with Cryptocurrency logos on social media. When Cryptocurrency begins to be seen as a fashion, it often means that the market is more driven by social sentiment rather than fundamentals, which typically heralds a market top.

When Crypto Assets suddenly become a symbol of social status, be prepared to 'dumping'.

8) Exchange Malfunction

During periods of increased market activity, major CEX/DEX often experience malfunctions due to a large number of users accessing them simultaneously.

This surge in activity usually occurs before or after the market peaks, when everyone is scrambling to buy or sell.

Although this indicator indicates that the market may have overheated, it is not sufficient to determine the start of the Bear Market solely based on this, other indicators need to be combined for a comprehensive judgment.

9) Cycle Position

The Halving event is a timer for market cycles, and the Bull Market cannot end so quickly. The positive impact of Halving usually takes 12 to 18 months to show.

The price may experience a sudden and significant pump, and the parabolic trend may start at any time within the remaining four months of 2024.

However, during this period, the price may also experience big dump at any time, but these big dumps usually recover quickly, indicating that the parabolic trend is almost inevitable.

So far, there have been moments in every Bull Market that have made investors panic early on. The exchange has made billions of dollars through market fluctuations, so flash crashes are inevitable.

There is no Bear Market yet, and it is almost impossible to appear in 2024, although the profitability of each cycle is lower when the market cycle approaches the limit. The most likely scenario is that these indicators will start sounding the alarm in the first quarter of 2025.

10) Your hairdresser bought Crypto Assets

I have no objection to any profession, and a hairdresser is also an important profession, but if you ignore all other indicators and fail to see that you are in a bubble, then your hairdresser may be the last and only indicator you need.

So, when the price keeps pumping for a long time, remember to go to the hairdresser regularly, like once a month. However, the hairdresser must bring up this topic on their own, otherwise the effectiveness of this indicator may not be guaranteed.

02、Conclusion

This is another prediction I made in 2021:

After the market peaks, Bitcoin will experience a significant drop and then enter a two-year Bear Market.

The current parabolic trend seems to have ended, if it continues to pump, it is very likely to peak next time, but I don't think it will happen again.

I believe the market has peaked and may not touch the high point again until 2024.

— Pantera (March 3, 2022)

Viewing a single indicator alone is not enough to make you feel uneasy. Usually, we need a combination of multiple indicators to trigger an alarm. However, the 10th indicator itself may be an important warning signal.

It is worth noting that none of these indicators currently indicate that the market has peaked. Although there may be a bubble, there is still plenty of pump space before it bursts. There are currently no indicators showing a red light, our current indicator is 0/10, so the possibility of the Bull Market ending here and the parabolic trend not appearing is almost zero.

Once you see most or all indicators appear, it may be too late, so be careful of the Cryptocurrency influencers you follow.

But there is no need to worry too much now, but make sure to study the actual indicators, which will help you make reasonable investment decisions.

Currently, we see all the declines being filled, and interest is slowly rising, with no indicators indicating a clear signal to sell. However, overconfidence may be the eleventh indicator that I have overlooked. So, despite the various analyses and signals we may observe, the situation can change at any time, and all we can do is manage risks effectively.