How Will the Market Move Next? 7 Tips for Not Losing Money During a Bull Market

Different people have different focuses when looking at issues, which leads to different perspectives. For example:

If you are an empiricist, then according to historical data trends, BTC generally rebounds after hitting its historical ATH for the first time and also rebounds after halving. From this perspective, the short-term outlook may be bullish.

If you focus on macroeconomics, then the recent (April 15th) release of the core retail sales data in the United States showing a 1.1% growth suggests that inflation may rise again, indicating that the Federal Reserve may not consider lowering interest rates in the short term. From this angle, the short-term outlook may be bearish.

If you enjoy studying the developments in geopolitical situations (such as events involving Iran and Israel), then you may come to another conclusion: the mid-term outlook is bearish.

If you continue to analyze the current candlestick technicals, you can discover more, such as the formation of a triple top pattern, declining momentum (based on RSI), and breaking below new support levels. The conclusion drawn from this may be: the mid-term outlook is bearish. In extreme cases, the price may reach around 52,000 in May or June, as shown in the following chart.

If you pay more attention to the inflow/outflow of funds in ETFs, you’ll notice that large institutions have currently paused their buying operations, and the inflow volume of ETFs has reached a relatively low level. Although the news about HK ETFs on April 15th could be considered a positive factor, its impact in the short term is not significant. Therefore, you might also come to the conclusion: if institutions are no longer buying, it indicates that challenging times may be ahead for the market.

If you prefer to look at the crypto market in conjunction with the stock market, then currently the S&P 500 index also appears to be showing signs of a top. As shown in the chart below.

In short, looking at the issue from different perspectives may lead to different conclusions. While some views may suggest short-term bullishness, it seems that there are more conclusions indicating a mid-term bearish outlook when considering all the “ifs” mentioned above. Moreover, the current direction of various news and public opinion seems to suggest a bearish outlook as well.

But as I always say: short-term market fluctuations cannot be accurately predicted, and most are just personal speculations based on certain perspectives. Additionally, the recent rise of the cryptocurrency market over the past six months may indicate some fatigue in the bull run, possibly requiring a temporary rest and adjustment, and kicking some people off the bull’s back.

As a steadfast long-term holder, I will continue to ignore all short-term fluctuations, so I definitely won’t take any action at the moment. As for you, if you can’t stand the current short-term volatility and urgently need liquidity, you may consider selling off some of your holdings. However, if you can’t buy back later, you must accept the consequences. Otherwise, buckle up and prepare to enjoy the roller coaster ride over the next few months.

Next, I will continue to share some viewpoints with everyone, hoping to provide some help in psychological preparation:

1. Bull Market Focuses on Speculation

Actually, this viewpoint has been mentioned several times in previous articles by various authors. For example, during bear markets, the focus is on research, primarily analyzing the fundamentals of projects. This involves assessing whether a project can sustain innovation, its market share, growth prospects, etc. Then, by focusing on a few projects you believe in and investing in them, you’re likely to reap good rewards when the bull market arrives.

However, during bull markets, things change. Fundamental analysis may sometimes not be as applicable. Instead, projects that rely on good marketing and hype can easily achieve tenfold or even higher growth, even if these projects have poor technology and tokenomics.

So, if you’re a long-term holder, you only need to focus on fundamentals. For example, I’ve always believed that UNI is a project with strong fundamentals. However, its current price performance may not be great, but in the long run, UNI is still a project worth investing in. But if you’re looking for short-term gains during a bull market, then it’s better to prioritize projects that are good at hype or have the potential for hype.

2. Secure Your Chips

Recently, with the market correction, I’ve seen some buddies cashing out their chips, and some even choosing to liquidate all their bitcoins, believing that BTC will drop back to the 4-digit range, and they plan to buy back in at that level.

In fact, I’ve seen some bloggers recently claiming that this bull market has ended, which I find a bit amusing (though I guess they might find my view amusing as well). Personally, I don’t believe BTC will drop to the 4-digit range in the next few months unless an extreme, low-probability black swan event occurs. Even if such an event were to happen, I wouldn’t just sell my BTC; I’d even consider putting in the last 1% of my holdings.

Although BTC has risen from around 15,000, according to our expectations, the bull market has just entered the mid-term stage, and the big bull market is far from over. Some of our buddies have been accumulating BTC with us since 2022, and now they’ve held on for over two years. What you need to do now is try to hold on for another year.

Of course, if you’re holding not BTC but some altcoins or meme coins based on short-term speculation, it’s necessary to cut losses (back to your psychological tolerance) or take profits (like doubling your initial investment) in a timely manner. Otherwise, you’ll face significant psychological fluctuations, especially if you’re the type who tends to go all-in on these altcoins or meme coins at the drop of a hat. As for the specific reasons, we’ve described them in our previous article: overall, liquidity is currently quite lacking in this bull market.

3. Stay Focused

During bull markets, opportunities are plentiful, but it seems that all opportunities pass by perfectly. Why is that? The core reason is often lack of focus. For example, some people see BRC20 tokens surging and immediately rush in to buy. Then, when they see the AI sector heating up, they quickly sell their BRC20 tokens and jump into the AI sector. They keep chasing hot trends like this repeatedly. As a result, they end up running in circles with the trends, not making any profits, and even losing their initial capital.

In several of our previous articles, we’ve emphasized one point: you should focus your research efforts on 1-3 specific areas based on your personal time and energy.

The cryptocurrency market offers a wide array of opportunities, with at least 200 different sectors, each containing numerous projects and knowledge systems. No one can cover all these areas comprehensively. If you try to catch every opportunity, the result is often that you miss them all.

For example, if you’ve been focusing on just one ecosystem like ARB or SOL for the past two years, or if you’ve solely been looking for opportunities within the BTC ecosystem, you should have made decent gains by now. At least you’re better off than those who chase every trend. And to be honest, if you can deeply understand just one sector within the BTC ecosystem (which itself contains many branches like the Lightning Network and script runes), you’re already very impressive.

I remember someone once left me a message saying, “I envy people like you (referring to our publication). I’ve been following you for a long time, and it seems like you know so much, you understand everything.”

The truth is, I don’t understand everything. As mentioned above, the knowledge in this field is vast, and there are countless new projects emerging every day. I mainly focus on two things: besides hodling coins, I primarily organize and share framework-based knowledge about cryptocurrencies. Even in our last article about the Bitcoin ecosystem, despite summarizing nearly 10,000 words, it’s still just a framework. If you randomly mention a specific project within the Bitcoin ecosystem to me now, there’s a good chance I’ll say, “I don’t know about that project.”

In summary, everyone has different goals and purposes, so their choices and abilities differ. But one thing is consistent: if you want to succeed, you must remain focused. For example, if I consider myself a self-media blogger specializing in disseminating knowledge, then I’ll choose to output more methodological summaries or knowledge frameworks because I believe this type of content will have long-term significance. I won’t delve into researching every specific project because I don’t have the time or energy for it. But if I see myself as a cryptocurrency investor, then I’ll definitely focus on my top 1-3 areas of interest and deeply research potential projects within them to manage my investments and positions effectively.

If you’ve read this far and think you’ve understood the point but feel like you’ve missed your chance because you’ve almost run out of capital, then you haven’t truly understood. In life and in work, it’s okay to make mistakes, and it’s okay to miss opportunities. What’s truly worrisome is being unable to accept (or reflect on) these mistakes or missed opportunities. For example, if you’re left with only $200 now, as long as you continue to delve deep into a certain field to do research, you’ll definitely find new opportunities. Because besides buying and selling coins, you still have other options. For instance, you can thoroughly research the airdrops within that ecosystem.

4. Reduce Time On Chart

Currently, there’s an interesting phenomenon where many seasoned traders, despite being highly proficient in candlestick chart analysis, rarely spend time monitoring charts constantly. Instead, it’s often those who don’t even know what EMA or BOLL indicators are that spend their days glued to candlestick charts.

Some individuals, once they’ve invested in certain coins, feel compelled to open trading or data software multiple times a day to check their account balances and monitor candlestick charts. Some even stare at their screens for entire days, as if not blinking will magically increase their balance.

This behavior often leads to exhaustion and exposes them to various psychological pressures from market fluctuations. In such a state, it’s very difficult to hold onto your coins.

It’s better to give yourself more options. Instead of spending all your time staring at charts, allocate some of that time to reading articles, taking notes, or going for a walk, soaking up the sun, and spending time with family. You’ll find that when you step away from the screen for a while, not only does your balance not decrease, but you also feel more refreshed and energized.

5. Try to Stay Away from Contracts

For ordinary investors, many hope to achieve quick wealth through leverage contracts. However, the reality is that the vast majority (99%) of those who trade contracts end up losing money. Playing with contracts is similar to gambling.

There are many people flaunting their contract profits, and if there are too many, I won’t say much more. I’ll just remind you: anyone who flaunts contract profits and claims they can make you money, without saying anything else, just block them immediately.

In a sense, contracts are not something “you” use to make money; they’re something exchanges use to make money. But if you believe you’re the chosen one who can outsmart the exchanges, then you can disregard what I just said because my experience and understanding may not be suitable for such experts.

6. Self-Risk Management

In previous articles, I often emphasized the importance of risk management and even said that risk management should always come first.

However, a while back, a buddy left a comment refuting me. He said, “I entered the crypto market to pursue high risk. If we prioritize risk management as you suggest, then what’s the point of playing?”

His perspective was actually quite interesting and humorous! Of course, I didn’t argue with him. Where there are many people, there will inevitably be various viewpoints, and everyone has the freedom to express their opinions.

The essence of risk management needs to be understood. The point is, anyone entering the crypto space isn’t necessarily seeking to reduce risk. If that were the case, you could just deposit your money in a bank’s savings account. But you also shouldn’t fall into the other extreme, thinking that entering the crypto market is solely about pursuing higher risk. When I say to prioritize risk management, it’s more about your personal perspective, your self-risk management.

You can buy Bitcoin, of course, or you can invest in low-cap altcoins, or even meme coins. These are all your choices, and all investments carry risks. And risk is relative. If you hold Bitcoin and meme coins, the meme coins are definitely higher risk. If you compare Bitcoin to a savings account, then Bitcoin is definitely higher risk. The important thing here is not to reduce your risk exposure in the crypto space but to try to achieve a “balance” in your risky investments. That’s the essence of risk management.

In earlier articles, I always advised keeping at least 50% of your portfolio in Bitcoin/Ethereum, and then planning the rest of your positions accordingly, investing in any altcoins/meme coins you believe in. This way, you can balance your risks. Even if all your altcoins and meme coins go to zero, your 50% allocation in Bitcoin will either prevent you from losing money or even allow you to make a profit. This is a form of self-risk management and is completely different from your understanding of the risks associated with a specific project.

7. Pay Attention to Account Security

The risk management mentioned above is more from an investment perspective, specifically the balanced management of positions. In fact, there is another kind of risk that comes from some security awareness, phishing, or scams.

Next, I will continue to expand and summarize this aspect of security for you:

First, do not casually share your mnemonic phrase or store it on your computer or cloud storage. If you choose to store your mnemonic phrase on your computer, consider making simple modifications, such as rearranging the order according to a pattern only you know, or storing it in separate parts.

Second, before connecting to a website to authorize your wallet, always verify whether it’s a genuine official website and check the legitimacy of the site to avoid phishing attempts. Once you grant authorization to a problematic website, your wallet can be emptied of all assets instantly. Additionally, consider installing some browser security plugins to ensure the security of each authorization interaction, such as scamsniffer or walletguard. As shown in the image below:

Third, if your assets are primarily stored on large exchanges like Binance or OKX (it’s not recommended to store large amounts on smaller exchanges), be sure to enable 2FA (Two-Factor Authentication) and use it in conjunction with the Google Authenticator app to ensure the security of your account.

Fourth, when conducting larger transactions, it’s advisable to first test with a small amount of funds to verify the transaction process. Carefully check the corresponding blockchain and wallet addresses to avoid any loss of funds due to sending to the wrong address. For larger transactions, the transaction fee incurred by the small test transfer is negligible compared to the potential loss.

Fifth, don’t put all your eggs in one basket. For example, I generally don’t keep more than $100,000 worth of assets on Binance because if an extreme situation like what happened with FTX occurs, I can personally bear the loss of this portion of funds. The remaining assets are distributed and stored in different cold and hot wallets. As for hardware wallets, you can choose from relatively well-known products such as Ledger, Trezor, Safepal, etc. However, personally, I don’t currently use such hardware wallets. Instead, I use two old iPhones as hardware wallets (offline).

Sixth, don’t easily trust anyone, especially those who claim to offer you opportunities to get rich quickly. These individuals not only package themselves, such as presenting themselves as experts in contracts or analysts, but they also use professional tools (such as fake exchanges, fake wallets, etc.) and even persuasive language to gradually lure you into their schemes. Don’t even trust those whom you think you can trust. For example, if someone with the same profile picture and name as “话李话外” approaches you, you should carefully verify the authenticity of that account, as it’s possible that the person contacting you isn’t actually me.

Lastly, everyone should go to bed early. Bitcoin will halve at 6 a.m. tomorrow. Let’s see what happens.

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